Who Wins Survivor 51? Reading the Winner's Edit After Episode 5

0:00 If Ori wins, it's a bad win. It's a bad You convinced me. If Ori wins, it's a bad win based on what we've seen so far. >> Yeah, Savu I think is the one that you believe was the snooze face cuz it had the three helicopter alliance people in it. >> I'm letting it up with Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Okay. It's hard to stay on top of the names with the way that they are playing the game. >> The helicopter tribe. We'll just call them the helicopter tribe from here on out. So, you're saying that the editing did not fool you this week. Like you didn't think for a second that Alexis had a chance in that group. Even though the way that they edited it looked like Ori was maybe closer with Alexis than what we believed. None of that. You weren't buying it is what you're saying. >> I wasn't buying it. Well, I mean, when Jelly sort of had sort of like that "Oh, should I don't want to have another woman be voted off, but then I've got the helicopter alliance, and it's kind of like, well, damn if you do and damn if you don't.

0:51 You got to make a choice." I was not fooled. No. They've made it such a editorial choice to show the helicopter alliance. So, I knew it was going to happen, for sure. >> I feel like Jelly was in a lose-lose situation this week. I don't know what the online community's response has been to this, but if she turned her back onto the helicopter alliance, she's not for the culture, which is kind of what she was alluding to in the in the episode with both Ori and Devin being there. We spoke about I think I don't know if we spoke about it in the on the podcast or off air, but this has like almost a cookout alliance kind of thing around it where people are sticking together for the culture. They want to get themselves to the end here. And then the other part of that is people are very pro female empowerment when it comes to Survivor, and they want women to go deep in the game. It's always been a thing. If a guys alliance come together, we hate on that. We want the women to band together, get to the end.

1:42 The black widow alliance is celebrated, for instance, right? And she was kind of stuck between two She was stuck between what do you call it? a hard rock and a soft place. >> Rock and a hard place, yeah. >> Rock and a hard place. There you go. She was She was stuck in between that, right? so, what was your thoughts? Like, I feel like she couldn't win in this moment. Like, she was going to upset half of the internet no matter what she did. >> Well, like her mistake was sort of airing that out to begin with because it's like once you say that out loud, you can't win. Oh, well, maybe not for the reason you think. so, he didn't have a great start to the episode when he was like saying, you know, we vindicated Aaliyah, I think it was. That was fair enough. He got rid of Jenna. Didn't vote for Aaliyah. Oh, what's he on about? Like, it just seems so in like so disjointed. What really brought me around on Devin is I always thought that Devin was a bit of a hypocrite.

2:34 I thought he was kind of like a bit of a coach type of character. He was not self-aware. He was going, "I'm going to be truthful." Seems like to me he's leaning into, "I'm going to lie to people." He flat-out lied to Alexis. Like, this is like And it wasn't even like got I think to the camera or to in his confession he's like, "Look, I'm going to do this because this is what needs to be done." I thought that was really good gameplay. So, what it seems to me is like Devin is playing one way towards people and one way to the camera. And I like that. I like that at least he's being congruous with himself or at least congruous to the audience at the very least. And that was my main concern with Devin very early on. He was like saying, "I'm going to be super honest." Turns out he's not being super honest. At [laughter] least he's aware of that. >> Yeah. And I respect that. In a funny way, I respect that. >> He's not He's not the first player ever to play the game.

3:24 Like, yeah, exactly. Like, there are players that have played the game in the past that have said, "We are the good guys. We're doing the honorable thing." while lying, backstabbing, cheating, and stealing. Yeah, exactly. Where Devin's not that. Like, he You could see even when he did lie to Alexis in this episode, it emotionally got to him. Like, he was quite emotional about the fact that he's needing to lie to this person that he's actually bonded with at a very deep and I did feel a little bit closer to her story. I couldn't remember Or Okay, Or story was also Or a good one. Always one I thought could have been by the way I still think Ori could win this game. I've got my eyes on Ori. I think he's got a really good social game. If people don't take him out, he could win a couple towards the end. I think he's likable. The fact that he's got an immigration story with his mom going over having to work at McDonald's bring them food. They were they had struggle growing up and things like that. I think his story could resonate with a lot of people if you get to the end and somehow a lot of people are not looking at him at this stage as a threat.

4:18 But he's insulated with the helicopter alliance. >> What really stood out to me was we didn't really get any of Jelly's story. We got all three of the stories. We didn't get Jelly's story. And that to me that was like that signal to me that she's not going to win. So I got okay, well we're seeing Ori's story we're seeing Devin's story. Devin's going to obviously get a bit of big character. Ori, I think what you're getting is Ori might win because of this because we got >> Toka camp and Toka camp Thien An is in a very strong position. It feels like in that tribe. We continue to see her sort of character being developed on the show a lot. Like she was quiet in the first couple of episodes. I think you're a big fan of Thien An as well Andre. You were talking highly of her in the previous episode. She clearly has a target on that side being Mike. She's targeting Mike. What's your thoughts about the fact that she's sort of saying Mike is that bottom feeder someone that will just go wherever the power is.

5:11 Do you see that in Mike as well? He just seems to me as a TV character at this stage being very bland and I've got a feeling that we're being set up here for Thien An to be the person that gets sniped at some point rather than Mike. I don't know why. >> I don't see that. I think Mike is going to go out on like a coin flip or just like a weird vote and they're just going to be like look Mike is just a bottom feeder. He's inconsequential and I think Thien An's going to be probably final five-ish I feel. I get that sense. Her edit reminds me very early on of Tina's. And there was like the famous Tina's the dog that didn't bark in the It's actually didn't get one confession on the first episode of Australian Outback. I feel like it's a similar type of trajectory for Thien An. Like first episode I already ruled her out as a as a winner cuz I was like, "Who is she?" She hasn't had like an episode.

6:05 But she's becoming like very So that's why I'm not saying winner, but I'm saying like final five. I think she's going to be a very important strategic player. And she's pretty Another guy from more recent example is like a Genevieve's original season where Genevieve was nothing in the first couple of episodes and then she just took out Rome, I think it was, and then she became a really big power player. So I think she's very much in line with that and I think that Mike is just going to be one of her victims. I feel like he I think Mike's going to be her Rome, I guess. >> Okay, speed round on this. Let's throw a couple of names out there. I'll go first and say who I think has got the best edit so far to take the season and be a winner. I feel like episode after episode, we need to start tallying this that it is changing quite a bit. And that is the showing of a good season or the evidence of a good season. When you go in episode after episode and the editing in my mind, I don't feel bullish beyond like giving I wouldn't give anyone more than a 50% like probability of winning the season at this stage.

7:05 I don't think that there's a clear >> frankly. >> Yeah. Yeah, so I just want to be very clear when I when I endorse these players that next week it might change again, but I'm looking at players that have had visibility every single episode because since season 41, they have made sure to always give the winner some sort of an edit every single episode or keep them relevant in people's minds at least. And there is not that many players that every single episode we've seen something from them. So for that reason and because of the backstory this week, Ori is one of my top three that I think has got a shot at winning this season. And also to your point that they're editing him in a very positive way. They're not >> So I would probably endorse Lewis over Kimi for that particular instance. >> Yeah. I still don't know why. >> I'll go Ori, Lewis >> If Ori wins >> Yeah. >> Is that a bad winner? Like frankly.

7:56 >> I think it's too early to call. Yeah. I really do think it's too early to call because >> [cough] >> Sorry. >> [clears throat] >> Like I always say the pre-merge to me is forgettable in a lot of seasons. It's what you do post-merge that ultimately in my mind determines who wins the season. A lot of people forget the pre-merge. >> anything frankly. It's like he has He's playing a good social game. And we've got good social winners. But like What social >> Therefore Ori wins is a bad win. It's a bad You convinced me. If Ori wins, it's a bad win based on what we've seen so far, but I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that he could still do something. But I do think the edit is like My list of who I would like to win is very different from what I think is going to win. At this point I say Ori, Lewis, and if I had to choose someone from Toka at this stage Ah, it's a very hard one.

8:48 I don't see Carter like you did, but I mean he could connect back with Lewis and do something there, but I tell you what the editing is starting to get me around on Thien An. Like I feel like Thien An could be a sleeper pick for a winner as well. even though I just earlier said Thien An might lose the battle against Mike, you kind of convinced me otherwise in this episode, and maybe you're right, maybe it's that obvious and Thien An is someone that could be a power player as well. >> Why Thien An over Carter? Why would we choose somebody that had a very weak couple first couple of episodes versus somebody that had just one weak episode this week? >> I think that Carter's gone the opposite way where he was kind of very visible in the beginning, had his connections, and now has started to disappear where Thien An has gone the opposite way. So you could you could count them out for both different reasons. But Thien An to me between Carter and Thien An seems and this is what makes me worried about her.

9:40 But, I want to give her credit for the type of game she's playing. She seems to be the most strategic one out of the two, right? So, that Carter will defer a lot of the strategy to her. The only thing is when Lewis and Carter gets back together, will Lewis be able to influence Carter more than Thien An? And I think he probably will. I feel like there's a strong connection there. >> I see it's going to be a very strong like five-person alliance up against like the helicopter alliance. >> That's the problem. The helicopter alliance is not obvious to anyone that's not watching the edited show and the